As with many positions, there appears to be a cutoff point that players must cross to have the necessary explosiveness to perform at a high level in the NFL. For running backs, that point seems to be in the range of 4. During the period I analyzed, only one running back, Frank Gore, ran below 4. The second-best running back to run over 4. Meanwhile, the success rate of running backs in the 4.
In that range, we've seen explosive backs like Adrian Peterson 4. It's worth noting that the yard dash also seems to predict running back success better than other drills such as the short shuttle and three-cone drill.
As the Cowboys are scouting the available running backs this year, their goal shouldn't necessarily be to find a "complement" for Murray, but rather to simply draft the best available player. By emphasizing straight-line speed, the 'Boys can dramatically increase their odds of hitting on a running back. Again, that doesn't mean they should blindly select the fastest back, but instead weigh speed more heavily than other factors to increase the probability of finding a diamond in the rough.
Let's take a look at the top 20 official 40 times for the running backs to see who might be available for Dallas:. Notable: Jawan Jamison, Rutgers 4. Right out of the gate, you can see this is a very slow running back class. Since , there have been an average of over seven running backs per year to run under 4. In , there were two. It's important to note that 4. Instead, it's really a range of potential, and the further you move down the list, the more you have to be concerned.
By the time you get to highly-regarded running backs in the 4. Another position you might see the 'Boys target, believe it or not, is wide receiver. Although there are high hopes for Dwayne Harris and Cole Beasley, the Cowboys could very well use a big, physical receiver to play in three-receiver sets when Miles Austin moves into the slot. And despite the obvious holes throughout the roster, the offense could be in major trouble if either Austin or Dez Bryant get injured, leaving either an undersized or sub-optimal player in the starting lineup.
So as much as the backup running back spot is a concern, so is the third receiver position. Now, the Cowboys probably won't target either position in the first round or two, so the best bet to find an immediate contributor is likely somewhere in the middle of the draft. Historically, running backs have outperformed wide receivers in that range. Since , the average running back drafted in Rounds has recorded around 20 percent more total production relative to others at his position than wide receivers in the same range.
Wide receivers have started slightly more games, but don't forget that two wide receivers typically start each game, compared to just one running back. The mid-round receivers have been to slightly more Pro Bowls than the running backs, but there were receivers drafted during the time I studied, compared to just 99 running backs.
On a per-player basis, the mid-round running backs have really outperformed the receivers in every category. I think there's a good chance that Dallas drafts both a running back and receiver this year, but it certainly appears as though there will be value on a runner in the middle and perhaps even late rounds.
In those areas, the Cowboys should be looking for players with high ceilings. While teams typically benefit from emphasizing safety early when the cost of their picks is higher, most mid- and late-round selections don't work out anyway.
The cost of missing on a player after the first few rounds is minimal, but the potential reward on a high-upside player is great. Like most years, there are all kinds of talented options in the middle rounds in I included only running backs who participated in both the yard dash and the short shuttle at the Combine to make sure the measurements were standardized so no Eddie Lacy, sorry.
He doesn't look like much , on the tale of the tape and won't wow in the yard dash 4. Rouse has very good plant-and-go explosion, sticking his foot in the ground and using his smooth hips and footwork to change direction.
He has deceiving strength to wiggle out of tackle attempts and runs extremely determined and motivated, finishing every run. Rouse's outstanding numbers include a school-record 4, career rushing yards, which is over 1, yards more than the No. Rouse, who will be the last player to wear No. RS12 , Nov 27, You must log in or sign up to reply here. They rattled quarterback Derek Carr with relentless pressure and forced mistakes with aggressive defensive plays. The Mustangs sacked Carr seven times, four more than their previous season best.
Safety Hayden Greenbauer went 83 yards on an interception return with left. The Mustangs have posted 13 sacks in their last two postseason appearances. He had two sacks, including a safety, and forced two fumbles as SMU took control in the first half on Monday. Down by 22 points in the first half, Fresno State scored on its opening possession of the third quarter. SMU led, with left in the fourth quarter.
Reed also recovered the fumble that Hunt forced in the second quarter.
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